The Chase Multiple: which trading card game is the biggest lottery?
Every trading card game is a little bit lottery: most cards are cheap, a few are worth a fortune. But how much of a lottery differs enormously. We measured the price of ~337,000 cards across 29 games with one number, the chase multiple: how many times the typical card the top 1% is worth.
Every game, ranked by chase multiple
Top 1% price ÷ median price. Tap a game for its full study.
| Game | Since | Typical | Top 1% | Chase multiple | Under $1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riftbound | 2025 | $0.32 | $1,167 | 3,646× | 61% |
| Lorcana | 2023 | $0.13 | $373 | 2,868× | 80% |
| Gundam | 2025 | $0.58 | $774 | 1,335× | 55% |
| One Piece | 2022 | $0.76 | $970 | 1,277× | 53% |
| Grand Archive | 2022 | $0.37 | $425 | 1,149× | 71% |
| Union Arena | 2023 | $0.43 | $270 | 627× | 64% |
| Dragon Ball Fusion World | 2024 | $0.51 | $298 | 584× | 58% |
| Flesh & Blood | 2019 | $0.27 | $135 | 499× | 69% |
| CookieRun Braverse | 2024 | $0.20 | $97 | 487× | 68% |
| Weiss Schwarz | 2008 | $0.44 | $175 | 398× | 65% |
| Dragon Ball Super CCG | 2017 | $0.35 | $119 | 339× | 70% |
| Pokémon | 1999 | $1.10 | $355 | 323× | 48% |
| Magic | 1993 | $0.39 | $123 | 316× | 66% |
| Digimon | 2020 | $0.47 | $141 | 299× | 61% |
| Star Wars Unlimited | 2024 | $0.27 | $80 | 296× | 74% |
| Final Fantasy TCG | 2016 | $0.22 | $64 | 291× | 74% |
| Shadowverse Evolve | 2022 | $0.58 | $161 | 277× | 59% |
| hololive | 2024 | $1.27 | $350 | 276× | 47% |
| Godzilla Card Game | 2024 | $0.78 | $214 | 274× | 55% |
| Yu-Gi-Oh | 2002 | $0.37 | $79 | 213× | 72% |
| Cardfight Vanguard | 2011 | $0.47 | $100 | 213× | 64% |
| Elestrals | 2022 | $0.34 | $57 | 167× | 71% |
| Sorcery | 2023 | $2.62 | $325 | 124× | 37% |
| MetaZoo | 2021 | $0.25 | $30 | 120× | 81% |
| UniVersus | 2021 | $0.41 | $41 | 100× | 65% |
| Pokémon (Japan) | 1996 | $1.69 | $143 | 84× | 41% |
| Future Card Buddyfight | 2014 | $0.66 | $44 | 67× | 59% |
| World of Warcraft | 2006 | $0.34 | $13 | 37× | 78% |
| Force of Will | 2013 | $0.61 | $21 | 35× | 65% |
The new games are bigger lotteries
The pattern is hard to miss: the five most top-heavy games (Riftbound, Lorcana, Gundam, One Piece, Grand Archive) all launched in 2022 or later and average about 2,055×. The three classics, Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh, average about 284×, about 7× flatter. Modern sets are designed around short-printed alt-art chases sitting on a bulk floor, which stretches the gap between the typical card and the top pull. The classics stay flatter partly because decades of reprints keep even famous cards in supply.
The other end: the flattest games
Two very different games sit at the bottom. Force of Will is the flattest of all (chase multiple just 35×), not by design, but because it is a large, decade-old game whose heavy reprinting means nothing in it clears ~$110 (see the Force of Will study). Sorcery: Contested Realm gets there the opposite way: it has the highest floor of any game here, a median card of $2.62 and only 37% of cards under $1, versus 47-81% almost everywhere else, because small print runs lift the whole price band. One is flat from age and supply, the other flat by deliberate high-floor design; both are the anti-pattern to the modern bulk-plus-chase lottery. Old, reprint-heavy Japanese Pokémon (84×) and the post-hype MetaZoo (120×) round out the flat tail.
Method & sources
- For each game we pulled the TCGplayer market price of every priced card (one price per product, the Normal printing where present) across every set, via the open tcgcsv.com dataset, 336,997 card prices in total.
- The chase multiple is the 99th-percentile price divided by the median price. Using the 99th percentile (not the single max) keeps it robust to one freak card.
- Sealed product, tokens and non-card listings are excluded by the per-product price join; each game spans its whole print history.
- TCGplayer market price via the open tcgcsv.com dataset. Valued 2026-07-05. Reference estimates for raw cards, not sold or graded records; prices move. Reproducible from the open dataset.
FAQ
Which trading card game has the most valuable chase cards relative to the typical card?
Riftbound. Its chase multiple, the top 1% price divided by the median price, is about 3,646×: the typical Riftbound card is a median $0.32 while a top-1% card is around $1,167. It is the most top-heavy of the 29 games we measured. Lorcana, Gundam, One Piece and Grand Archive round out the top five.
Are newer card games bigger lotteries than Magic or Pokémon?
Yes, clearly. The five most top-heavy games in our data all launched in 2022 or later, and they average about 2,055×. The three classics, Magic, Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh, average about 284×, about 7 times flatter. Modern sets lean hard on short-printed alt-art chases sitting on top of a bulk floor.
Which trading card game has the least bulk?
Sorcery. It has the highest floor of any game we measured: a median card of $2.62 and only 37% of cards under $1, versus 47-81% almost everywhere else. Small print runs lift the whole price floor, so a Sorcery "common" is not bulk the way it is elsewhere. (The flattest game, the smallest gap between typical and top, is a different one, Force of Will at 35×, because decades of reprints keep even its rarest cards cheap.)
How is the chase multiple calculated, and where does the data come from?
For each game we took the TCGplayer market price of every priced card (one price per product, the Normal printing where present) across every set, via the open tcgcsv.com dataset (TCGplayer market price via the open tcgcsv.com dataset, valued 2026-07-05). The chase multiple is the 99th-percentile price divided by the median price. Using the 99th percentile rather than the single most expensive card keeps it robust to one outlier. These are reference estimates, not sold or graded records, and prices move.
Whatever you collect, see what your cards are worth.
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Related research
The Riftbound Rarity Ladder
The biggest lottery of all 29 games, Riftbound's Showcase chases sit on a deep bulk floor.
35×The Force of Will Flat Market
The flattest game measured: 6,451 cards and nothing tops ~$110.
49-79%Is value concentration a law of TCGs?
Across Magic, Pokémon & Yu-Gi-Oh the top 10 cards hold 49-79% of set value.
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Source: <a href="https://foilio.net/studies/tcg-chase-multiple?utm_source=share&utm_medium=study_embed&utm_campaign=viral">The Chase Multiple: which trading card game is the biggest lottery?, Foilio</a> · data CC BY 4.0
</p>Foilio (2026-07-05). The Chase Multiple: which trading card game is the biggest lottery?. Retrieved from https://foilio.net/studies/tcg-chase-multipleThe big picture, across every game we measure: The Price Census · The Promo Premium · The Foil Premium